Optimism is a forward-looking quality. At this time last year, however, there was a striking lack of optimism in 2009 forecasts and a backward-looking set of predictions. This is no surprise to those familiar with an old insurance company joke. It compares an insurance company, and by extension the insurance industry, to a car in which sits the CEO, the chief marketing officer, the chief underwriting officer and the chief actuary. The CEO is steering, the chief marketing officer has his foot on the gas, the chief underwriting officer has her foot on the brake and the chief actuary is looking out the back window telling them all where to go...

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